The market for “Trump declassifies new UFO files by July 15?” surged sharply in the past 24 hours, with the YES price jumping 45.0 percentage points from 36.5% to 81.5%. This dramatic repricing reflects a significant shift in trader sentiment on Polymarket as the deadline approaches.
Alongside the price move, whale activity aligned with the upward momentum, confirming the tape rather than contradicting it. Large traders increased their exposure to YES contracts, supporting the market’s bullish shift. Polymarket recorded $21K in volume over the same period, indicating robust participation around this event.
This combination of a steep rise in implied probability and matching whale flow highlights strong confidence in the likelihood that Trump will release new UFO files by mid-July. The convergence of price and whale bets suggests the market is consolidating around this outcome more firmly than before.
Overall, the 45 percentage-point repricing coupled with confirming whale activity signals a decisive reassessment of this event’s chances on Polymarket, reflecting heightened trader conviction as the deadline nears.
| Market | Trump declassifies new UFO files by July 15? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2730727 |
| 24h price change | +45.0 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 81.5% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 36.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | — |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $0 |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | — / — |
| Unique whales (24h) | — |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $21K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | — |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-10. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.