Breaking
Odds for 30 ships transiting Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026, plunge 49.9 pp on Polymarket
Despite a sharp drop in YES price, whale buying diverged by adding $36K to YES contracts over 24 hours
Jul 14
#%swhale flow
Daily digests, accuracy rankings and market reads on Polymarket data. 463 stories.
Breaking
YES price on Hormuz transit plunges 46.2pp while whales buy $36K into the market
Polymarket’s YES price on 30 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz drops from 92.7% to 46.5%, diverging sharply from whale buying activity.
Jul 14
Whales
$4.81M Net Whale Flow into YES on France Winning 2026 World Cup Against 0.05% Market Price
Whales have bought $11.92M and sold $2.97M on France's 2026 World Cup win market, diverging sharply from the 0.05% market-implied probability.
Jul 14
Breaking
Unai Simón Golden Glove odds jump 62pp to 87.5% on Polymarket with whale support
Whales added $4K net to YES as market price surged from 25.5% to 87.5%, signaling strong conviction on Simón's chances
Jul 14
Breaking
France Semifinal Elimination Contract Jumps 58.8 Points on Polymarket
Whales added $8K to YES positions as the contract price soared from 40.5% to 99.2% in 24 hours.
Jul 14
Breaking
YES price on Israel Yeshiva exemption jumps 76.5pp to 85% with $13K whale inflow
Whale activity aligned with a sharp 24-hour surge in optimism for military exemption by September 30.
Jul 14
Breaking
“Iran successfully targets shipping on July 14?” YES price jumps 59.6pp to 97.0%
Whale activity moved in step with a sharp 24-hour surge in odds for Iran targeting shipping on July 14.
Jul 14
Breaking
Israel military exemption for Yeshiva students YES price jumps 73.5pp to 82%
Whales added $11K to YES bets as Polymarket odds surged from 8.5% to 82% in 24 hours, signaling strong conviction.
Jul 14
Breaking
Ed Miliband Chancellor Market YES Price Drops 56pp to 12.5% Amid Whale Buying Divergence
Whale investors added $22K in YES bets despite a sharp 56 percentage point fall in the price on Polymarket.
Jul 14
Breaking
UK Home Secretary Market YES Price Drops 65.5 Points Amid Whale Flow Divergence
Despite a sharp 65.5 percentage point drop in YES price, whale trading activity diverged by net buying $1K into YES contracts.
Jul 14