Breaking
45pp surge in ‘Will July 2026 be the 1st hottest on record?’ market as whales back YES
Polymarket’s YES price jumped from 35.5% to 80.5% on strong whale buying aligned with the price move.
Jul 15
#%swhale flow
Daily digests, accuracy rankings and market reads on Polymarket data. 463 stories.
Whales
$276K Net Whale Flow Buys Into England Win at 22.7% Price in World Cup Market
Whales added $276K net to YES on England winning 2026 World Cup, diverging from the market price under 23%.
Jul 15
Breaking
Iran Gulf military action odds jump 23.5 points as whales back YES on Polymarket
Whales aligned with a 24-hour surge in market odds, driving YES price from 64.5% to 88.0% ahead of July 15
Jul 15
Breaking
Ed Miliband Chancellor Market YES Price Drops 44.5pp Amid Whale-Price Divergence
Whales bought $28K in YES contracts while Polymarket’s price for Ed Miliband as Chancellor tumbled from 62.5% to 18.0%.
Jul 15
Breaking
“Will Ethereum reach $1,900 in July?” YES price jumps 37.5pp to 87.5% on Polymarket
Whales contributed $20K net buying alongside a sharp price rise, signaling strong market conviction in ETH hitting $1,900 this month.
Jul 15
Breaking
US blockade end odds drop 21pp as whale flow diverges from price
Polymarket’s “US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?” contract fell from 71.5% to 50.5% despite whale activity moving against the price shift.
Jul 15
Breaking
Iran military action market YES price surges 25.5 pp to 93.5% as whales buy in
Polymarket’s contract on Iranian military action against a Gulf State on July 15 sees strong alignment between price jump and whale buying activity.
Jul 15
Whales
$4.68M Net Whale Bets on France to Win 2026 World Cup Despite 0.05% Market Odds
A surge of $4.68M net whale flow into the YES side contrasts sharply with the market-implied price, highlighting a rare divergence in the World Cup prediction market.
Jul 15
Breaking
Odds for 30 ships transiting Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026 drop 61.3 pp despite $41K whale buys
Whale buying diverges sharply from a 61.3 percentage point fall in YES price, signaling conflicting signals in the market.
Jul 15
Breaking
Iran military action odds surge 37.5pp to 93.5% as whales back YES on Polymarket
Whales supported a sharp jump in the probability of Iranian military action against a Gulf State, pushing the YES contract from 56.0% to 93.5% in 24 hours.
Jul 15