Breaking
‘Will Trump meet Netanyahu by July 24, 2026?’ YES odds plunge 81 points to 5%
Whale activity diverged sharply from price, signaling conflicting views amid a $28K volume surge.
Jul 16
#%swhale flow
Daily digests, accuracy rankings and market reads on Polymarket data. 463 stories.
Breaking
YES price on Claude Opus release drops 29pp to 33.5% as whale flow diverges
Polymarket’s latest shift on the Claude Opus release contrasts sharply with whale trading, signaling market uncertainty.
Jul 16
Breaking
Iran military action odds drop 44.5pp to 44.0% despite $12K whale buying
Whales bought $12K in YES contracts even as market odds for Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 15 dropped sharply from 88.5%.
Jul 16
Breaking
Claude Opus July 22, 2026 Release Odds Drop 22pp Amid Divergent Whale Flow
Polymarket’s ‘Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 22, 2026?’ market saw a sharp odds decline despite whale activity showing no support for the price move.
Jul 16
Breaking
Alibaba AI model odds drop 24.9 pp to 53.1% despite $3K whale buying
Whale flow diverged from price as Alibaba’s chance for top Chinese AI model fell sharply in 24 hours
Jul 16
Breaking
Max Martin wedding attendance odds plunge 50.8pp despite $4K whale bets
Whales bought $7K of YES contracts even as Polymarket’s price dropped from 82.8% to 32.0% in 24 hours.
Jul 16
Breaking
Claude Opus July 2026 Release Odds Drop 18.5pp Despite Whale Buying
The contract’s YES price fell from 93.0% to 74.5% over 24 hours while whales increased their YES bets, signaling a split between price direction and large trader flow.
Jul 16
Breaking
Iran military action odds on July 15? plunge 39pp as whale flow diverges
YES price for Iran Gulf State military action drops from 85.5% to 46.5% despite $13K whale buying in 24 hours
Jul 16
Breaking
Toby Doeden’s 2026 South Dakota GOP primary odds drop 17.5 pp amid whale buying divergence
Price for Toby Doeden to win South Dakota GOP primary fell from 27.5% to 10.0% while whales bought $394 net in YES contracts, diverging from the price move.
Jul 16
Whales
$324K Whale Flow Bets Against 0.25% Price on LeBron James 2028 US Presidency Market
Whales poured $324K into YES despite the market pricing LeBron James at just 0.25%, highlighting a rare divergence in the 2028 US Presidential Election event.
Jul 16