Breaking
Carlos Vila Nova’s 2026 São Tomé and Príncipe win odds jump 18.9 pp to 95.3%
Whales supported the surge with a net $11K buy in the past 24 hours, confirming the sharp price move.
Jul 20
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Daily digests, accuracy rankings and market reads on Polymarket data. 2,182 stories.
Breaking
Claude Opus July 22, 2026 Release Odds Drop 33pp Despite Whale Buying
Polymarket’s “Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 22, 2026?” contract fell from 52.5% to 19.5% while whale flow diverged, signaling a complex market view.
Jul 20
Breaking
Oleksandr Syrskyi exit odds jump 16.5pp to 83.5% on Polymarket as whales back the move
The contract on Syrskyi leaving Ukraine's top command by end-2026 rose sharply, with whale activity confirming the price shift.
Jul 20
Breaking
US Withdrawal from MOU Talks Odds Drop 16pp Amid Divergent Whale Activity
Polymarket’s market on US withdrawal from MOU negotiations falls from 44.0% to 28.0% even as whale flow diverges from price action.
Jul 20
Breaking
Trump in WC Champions Photo Market Jumps 38.2 Points to 99.2% on Whale Buying
Whales drove nearly $1M net into YES as the market soared from 61.0% to 99.2% in 24 hours, matching the price shift with strong demand.
Jul 20
Breaking
Andrew Tate Extradited to UK by Sep 30? YES odds drop 19pp despite $7K whale buys
Whale buying diverged from falling market prices, signaling differing views on Tate’s extradition timing.
Jul 20
Breaking
Trump’s WC Champions Photo Market Surges 38.2pp to 99.2% on Whale Buying
Whales injected nearly $1M into YES as prices jumped from 61.0% to 99.2%, signaling strong alignment between flow and market repricing.
Jul 20
Breaking
Claude Opus July 22, 2026 release odds drop 27.5pp despite whale buying
Whale flow diverged from a sharp 27.5 percentage point decline in YES contract price on Polymarket’s Claude Opus release market.
Jul 20
Breaking
“Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo?” YES contract jumps 38.4 pp to 99.4%
Whales added $978K in net flow to YES as the market price surged from 61.0% to near certainty in 24 hours.
Jul 20
Breaking
Odds Andrew Tate will be released by July 31 plunge 22.5 points amid diverging whale flow
Polymarket’s latest pricing shows sharp skepticism on Tate’s release as whales move against the price trend.
Jul 20