The probability that Andrew Tate will be released from custody by July 31, 2026, collapsed by 22.5 percentage points in the last 24 hours on Polymarket, dropping from 27.0% to 4.5%. This significant repricing signals growing market doubt about an early release.
Despite the sharp fall in the YES contract price, whale trading activity diverged from this downward move, with no net inflow into YES positions. This divergence indicates that while the general market sentiment turned strongly against Tate’s release, larger traders did not follow the same path, maintaining or even accumulating YES exposure.
Polymarket recorded $11K in volume on this market over the same 24-hour period, reflecting moderate trading interest amid this volatility. The contrasting signals between price action and whale flow highlight a complex dynamic: retail or smaller traders appear to be driving the price lower, whereas whales hold a more neutral or optimistic stance.
This split between price and whale flow suggests uncertainty in the market’s evaluation of Tate’s custody status, with the broader crowd increasingly pessimistic while whales remain steady. The combined price drop and whale divergence underscore a contested outlook on Tate’s potential release by the month-end deadline.
| Market | Andrew Tate released from custody by July 31, 2026? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2979836 |
| 24h price change | +22.5 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 4.5% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 27.0% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | — |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $0 |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | — / — |
| Unique whales (24h) | — |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $11K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | — |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-20. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.