Daily digests, accuracy rankings and market reads on Polymarket data. 2,182 stories.
Polymarket’s ‘Iran commits not to attack ships in Hormuz by Sunday?’ YES contract dropped from 26.0% to 1.6% despite whale activity moving against the price trend.
Whales bought $6K in YES contracts even as Polymarket’s price for CDU winning Berlin slid from 23.0% to 8.0%.
Polymarket prices for Iran military action on July 11 fell sharply while whale flow moved opposite, signaling trader skepticism.
Polymarket’s price for 'Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz' fell sharply despite whale buying diverging from the price move.
Whale activity aligned with a sharp price rise, pushing YES odds from 36.5% to 52.5% in 24 hours.
The market for 40 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026, saw a sharp 17 pp decline in YES price while whale activity moved against the price trend.
Whale activity diverged from price action as the market sharply lowered the chance of Anthropic extending Claude Fable 5 paid-plan access by July 12.
Whales bought $29K in YES contracts, aligning with a 20-point jump in odds over 24 hours on Polymarket.
YES price on xAI Grok model debut plunges from 20.1% to 1.1% despite whale inactivity, signaling market skepticism.
Odds for Kash Patel exiting by year-end rose sharply to 61.5%, backed by $15K whale net inflows
