Breaking
Iran military action odds jump 37.4 points to 100% on Polymarket
Whale activity aligned with a sharp rise in odds on Iran’s Gulf State military action market amid $771K volume.
Jul 14
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Daily digests, accuracy rankings and market reads on Polymarket data. 2,182 stories.
Breaking
Ethereum $1,900 July YES Contract Jumps 39.5 Points on Polymarket
Whale buying matched the sharp 24-hour rise from 49.5% to 89.0% in YES price, signaling strong conviction.
Jul 14
Breaking
Israel-Lebanon diplomatic meeting odds jump 39.1pp to 99.1% on Polymarket
Whale activity aligned with a sharp market surge, pushing the probability of a meeting by July 14, 2026, close to certainty.
Jul 14
Breaking
Polymarket YES price for 30 ships transiting Strait of Hormuz plunges 64.4 pp in 24h
Price drop contrasts with $30K whale net inflow, signaling conflicting market signals on transit likelihood.
Jul 14
Breaking
‘Will Ukraine re-enter Maliivka by December 31?’ YES jumps 49.7 points on aligned whale buying
Whales pushed $3K net into YES as the contract’s probability more than doubled to 94.7% in 24 hours.
Jul 14
Breaking
“Will Russia capture Pokrovka by July 31?” YES price jumps 86.3 pp to 95.1% amid whale buying
Whales supported a massive 24-hour surge in odds, pushing the YES contract from 8.8% to 95.1% on Polymarket.
Jul 14
Breaking
“Over $25M committed to the Credible public sale?” YES price jumps 46.9pp to 99.4%
Whale activity aligned with a sharp rise in odds, signaling near certainty in the market over 24 hours.
Jul 14
Breaking
“Will 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026?” YES price drops 61.8 pp despite $30K whale inflow
Polymarket’s YES price for the Strait of Hormuz transit market plunged from 95.8% to 34.0% in 24 hours while whales bought $30K net into YES, signaling a sharp divergence between price action and whale behavior.
Jul 14
Breaking
“Iran successfully targets shipping on July 14?” YES price jumps 63.6pp to 91.1%
Whale trading aligned with a sharp 24-hour surge on Polymarket, lifting odds from 27.5% to 91.1%.
Jul 14
Breaking
“Will Russia capture Pokrovka by July 31?” YES contract jumps 81.7 pp to 90.5% on Polymarket
Whale activity aligned with the sharp price surge, driving $9K net flow into YES amid $60K 24-hour volume.
Jul 14