Daily digests, accuracy rankings and market reads on Polymarket data. 2,182 stories.
Polymarket’s price for 30 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026, fell sharply despite whales increasing YES positions, signaling conflicting market signals.
Polymarket’s market on US charging Hormuz fees sees a sharp 46.5 pp drop in YES price while whale bets diverge from the price move.
Whales supported the sharp 24-hour rise in probability with $13K net inflow amid $23K total volume.
Whales added $14K net to YES as odds surged from 47.5% to 90.5%, aligning flow with price action.
Whale activity aligned with a sharp 24-hour surge in optimism for military exemption by September 30.
Whale activity aligned with a major price surge, signaling a rapid shift in market sentiment for the 2026 UK Chancellor question.
Polymarket’s price for US charging Hormuz fees tumbles sharply while whale activity contradicts the sell-off, signaling conflicting market signals.
Whale activity moved in step with a sharp 24-hour surge in odds for Iran targeting shipping on July 14.
Whales added $11K to YES bets as Polymarket odds surged from 8.5% to 82% in 24 hours, signaling strong conviction.
Whale investors added $23K to YES contracts even as market price dropped from 68.5% to 16.0%, signaling conflicting signals on Ed Miliband’s chances.
