Daily digests, accuracy rankings and market reads on Polymarket data. 2,182 stories.
Whales aligned with a sharp 55.0 pp rise in the chance that no next Google Gemini Pro model arrives by July 31, 2026, pushing the market price to 78.5%.
Price on Iran military action dropped sharply from 90.5% to 40.5% despite whale bets moving against the decline.
Polymarket's contract price dropped from 55.5% to 35.0% in 24 hours while whale activity diverged by not supporting the selloff.
Whale activity diverged from price, as market’s YES probability dropped sharply from 27.5% to 4.5% in 24 hours.
Polymarket’s “Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 13?” contract slashed YES probability from 91.0% to 44.5%, despite whale trading opposing the price move.
Polymarket's odds for Mahmood becoming UK Chancellor in 2026 jumped from 16.1% to 87.8%, with $43K whale net inflow confirming the price shift.
Whales bought $6K into YES contracts even as market odds dropped sharply from 62.5% to 11.0% in 24 hours.
The market on Mahmood becoming UK Chancellor in 2026 soared from 15.4% to 84.2% alongside $43K whale net buying, signaling strong conviction.
Whales and overall market moved in tandem as the probability for Mahmood becoming UK Chancellor in 2026 surged sharply within 24 hours.
Whale buying diverged sharply from a steep 64.5pp drop in the implied probability that there will be no next UK Home Secretary in 2026.
