Breaking
Israel x Iran ceasefire odds jump 21.5 pp to 60.5% as whale bets back the move
The probability of a ceasefire lasting through July 31 rose sharply alongside whale activity, signaling strong market conviction.
Jul 20
#%smiddle east
Daily digests, accuracy rankings and market reads on Polymarket data. 6 stories.
Breaking
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 15? YES odds drop 40pp in 24h amid whale flow divergence
Polymarket’s 'Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 15?' market saw YES contract odds plunge from 84.0% to 44.0%, while whales increased YES exposure, signaling conflicting signals between price and whale activity.
Jul 18
Breaking
“Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?” YES price drops 21.5 pp despite whale buying
Whale flow diverged from price as market odds for ceasefire fell sharply to 43.0% on $32K volume
Jul 18
Breaking
Israel-Lebanon diplomatic meeting odds jump 69.5 pp to 95% on Polymarket
Whale activity aligned with a sharp rise in the likelihood of a diplomatic meeting by July 14, 2026, pushing YES price from 25.5% to 95%.
Jul 13
Breaking
Israel-Lebanon diplomatic meeting odds surge 70pp to 88% on Polymarket
Whale activity and price shifts moved in tandem, signaling strong market conviction on a meeting by July 14, 2026.
Jul 13
Breaking
Israel-Lebanon diplomatic meeting odds surge 53.5 points in 24 hours
Whale activity aligned with a sharp rise in market conviction on a diplomatic meeting by July 14, 2026.
Jul 13