The market for “Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?” saw its YES price climb sharply by 21.5 percentage points over the past 24 hours, rising from 39.0% to 60.5% on Polymarket. This substantial repricing reflects a sudden surge in confidence that the ceasefire will hold through the end of July.
Supporting this price move, whale flow aligned with the market direction, confirming the shift in sentiment rather than contradicting it. The $61K in 24-hour trading volume indicates active participation as large bettors added net exposure to the YES outcome, reinforcing the upward momentum in odds.
This tandem movement of price and whale flow signals a consolidated market view that the ceasefire is more likely to persist than previously priced in. The rapid increase in probability, backed by significant whale activity, suggests that traders are responding to new information or developments that boost the likelihood of sustained peace through July 31.
Overall, the data points to growing conviction among both retail and large-scale participants that the ceasefire will continue, making the YES contract one of the most notable movers on Polymarket today.
| Market | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2952486 |
| 24h price change | +21.5 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 60.5% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 39.0% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | — |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $0 |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | — / — |
| Unique whales (24h) | — |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $61K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | — |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-20. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.