The market on whether Shabana Mahmood will be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026 surged 29.8 percentage points in the last 24 hours, climbing from 57.6% to 87.4%.
This sharp repricing coincided with whale activity that aligned with the price move. Whales contributed a net $51K into YES contracts over the same period, with $101K in whale buy volume offset by $50K in sell volume. This flow pattern confirms that large traders supported the rising odds rather than countering them.
Overall 24-hour volume on Polymarket for this question was $90K, while lifetime market volume reached $261K. The market attracted participation from 451 unique traders, including 118 unique whales active in the last day.
The simultaneous surge in price and whale buying suggests growing confidence or new information driving the market’s outlook for Mahmood’s chances. The combined effect of a nearly 30-point jump and whale backing signals a significant shift in market sentiment toward her becoming Chancellor in 2026.
| Market | Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2632929 |
| 24h price change | +29.8 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 87.4% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 57.6% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 87.4% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $51K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $101K / $50K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 118 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $90K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 451 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-16. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.