Seoul registers the widest forecast spread among 52 active weather markets today, with a 1.8°C gap between predicted highs of 24.2°C and 26°C, driving $38K in trading volume over the past 24 hours. This divergence stands out as yesterday’s actual high in Seoul reached 31°C, underscoring notable uncertainty among forecast sources.
Across the vertical, total 24-hour volume reached $272K, with Taipei topping city-level liquidity at $40K. Taipei’s forecast high ranges from 31.4°C to 33°C, reflecting a 1.6°C spread and contributing to its position as the deepest market by volume for the day. Hong Kong also saw significant activity, generating $26K in volume with a narrower forecast spread of 0.8°C between 29°C and 29.8°C.
The scale of disagreement in Seoul’s forecast highlights the dynamic nature of weather prediction markets, where differing source inputs create tradable opportunities. The contrast between yesterday’s actual temperature and today’s forecast range signals potential volatility and market interest as traders weigh varying outlooks. Taipei’s leadership in volume confirms its role as a key hub for weather market depth, while Hong Kong adds regional diversity.
Overall, the $272K traded across these cities reflects active engagement and the value of forecast uncertainty in shaping market flows. Monitoring how actual temperatures settle these spreads will remain critical for participants tracking weather outcomes and their implications.
Today’s most active weather markets
| City | Volume (24h) | Forecast high | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| Taipei | $40K | 31.4°C–33°C | 1.6°C |
| Seoul | $38K | 24.2°C–26°C | 1.8°C |
| Hong Kong | $26K | 29°C–29.8°C | 0.8°C |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /weather/cities · snapshot 2026-07-18. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.