The market on whether Pamela Evette will replace Senator Graham in South Carolina saw a sharp reversal over the past 24 hours, with the YES price collapsing 64.5 percentage points from 65.6% to just 1.1%.
The sudden shift comes alongside $22K of trading volume but reveals a notable divergence between price action and whale activity. While the YES contract’s implied probability plummeted, large traders moved against this price trend, indicating whale flow diverged from the tape.
This mismatch suggests that the broader market rapidly discounted Evette’s chances of replacing Graham, whereas sizable bettors maintained or increased positions on YES. Such a split between price and whale flow signals uncertainty or conflicting views among informed participants.
The dramatic drop in price reflects a significant reappraisal of the likelihood that Evette will assume the Senate seat, possibly triggered by new information or shifting political dynamics.
Overall, the combined picture of a steep decline in odds paired with divergent whale flow highlights a contested market narrative. This tension underscores the complexity investors see in the Pamela Evette Senate replacement scenario as of July 13, 2026.
| Market | Will Pamela Evette replace Graham as South Carolina Senator? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2896160 |
| 24h price change | +64.5 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 1.1% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 65.6% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | — |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $0 |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | — / — |
| Unique whales (24h) | — |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $22K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | — |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-13. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.