The market on whether NVIDIA will be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31 saw its YES price drop sharply by 18.0 percentage points over 24 hours, falling from 76.0% to 58.0%.
Despite this significant decrease in implied probability, whale activity presented a contrasting picture. Over the same 24-hour period, whales net bought $34K into YES contracts, with $67K in whale buy volume against $34K in sell volume. This divergence between price movement and whale flow is notable, as it indicates large traders are increasing exposure to the YES outcome even as the market price moves lower.
The market’s total 24-hour volume stood at $84K, a modest figure compared to the lifetime volume of $1.41M and participation from 3,070 unique traders. The 152 unique whales active in the last day contributed significantly to the volume, underscoring their influence on this contract.
Overall, the combined price and flow data point to a market with conflicting signals, reflecting uncertainty or differing views on NVIDIA’s near-term market cap prospects.
| Market | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2673621 |
| 24h price change | +18.0 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 58.0% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 76.0% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 58.0% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $34K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $67K / $34K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 152 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $84K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 3,070 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-17. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.