The probability that Kylian Mbappé will record the most goal contributions at the 2026 FIFA World Cup jumped sharply by 77.1 percentage points in the past 24 hours, rising from 19.0% to 96.1% on Polymarket. This dramatic repricing reflects a significant shift in market sentiment around the French star’s performance prospects at the tournament.
Whale activity confirmed the price move, with 46 unique whales contributing $17K in buy volume and $3K in sell volume, resulting in a net $14K inflow into YES contracts. This strong whale participation accompanied the total Polymarket 24-hour volume of $16K, indicating that large traders and the broader market moved in tandem.
Since inception, the market has seen $53K in lifetime volume across 342 unique traders, highlighting sustained interest in this outcome. The alignment of whale flow with the sharp price increase suggests growing confidence among high-stake participants in Mbappé’s dominance in the upcoming World Cup.
Combined, the surge in price and whale backing signals a pronounced market consensus that Mbappé is highly likely to lead in goal contributions at the 2026 FIFA World Cup, reflecting a major shift from earlier expectations.
| Market | Will Kylian Mbappé record the most goal contributions at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2117909 |
| 24h price change | +77.1 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 96.1% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 19.0% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 95.9% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $14K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $17K / $3K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 46 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $16K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 342 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-20. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.