The market for “Iran successfully targets shipping on July 13?” saw its YES price collapse by 46.8 percentage points over the past 24 hours, falling from 56.8% to 10.0%, according to Polymarket Breaking data on July 15.
This sharp repricing contrasts with whale trading activity, which showed $4K net inflows into YES contracts during the same period. Whale buy volume stood at $6K against $3K in sells, across 46 unique whale traders. This divergence between whale flow and price movement indicates that while the broader market sharply reduced its odds of a targeted attack, whales increased their exposure to the YES side.
Polymarket recorded $5K in total 24-hour volume for this market, with lifetime volume reaching $61K and participation from 210 unique traders. The whale buying interest amid a steep price drop suggests a split in conviction levels among large traders and the wider market.
The combined picture of a 46.8pp price decline alongside $4K net whale purchases signals a contested outlook on the likelihood of Iran targeting shipping on July 13. The market is sharply discounting the event, but whale activity highlights persistent bets supporting the occurrence.
| Market | Iran successfully targets shipping on July 13? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2835636 |
| 24h price change | +46.8 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 10.0% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 56.8% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | — |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $4K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $6K / $3K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 46 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $5K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 210 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-15. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.