The probability that Iran successfully targeted shipping on July 9 dropped sharply by 26.1 percentage points over the past 24 hours on Polymarket, falling from an estimated 28.0% to 1.9% as of July 10. This dramatic decline in the YES contract price contrasts with whale trading activity, which saw a net $3K inflow into YES positions. Whales bought $6K worth of contracts but also sold $3K, involving 25 unique whale traders during this period.
Notably, whale flow diverged from the price movement, signaling a split between large traders and the broader market sentiment reflected in the price drop. The overall 24-hour volume on Polymarket for this market was $5K, against a lifetime volume of $41K and 153 unique traders in total. The Polydata mid-market on-chain price reported a higher YES probability of 7.5%, indicating some discrepancy between the Polymarket breaking price and the on-chain mid price.
The combined picture of a steep price decline amid whale accumulation hints at underlying complexity in market expectations surrounding the event’s outcome.
| Market | Iran successfully targets shipping on July 9? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2686764 |
| 24h price change | +26.1 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 1.9% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 28.0% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 7.5% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $3K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $6K / $3K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 25 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $5K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 153 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-10. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.