The probability for “Iran successfully targets shipping on July 6?” dropped sharply by 18.1 percentage points in the last 24 hours, falling from 21.9% to 3.9% on Polymarket. This marked decline comes amid divergent activity from whales, who net bought $8K into the YES side during the same period.
Whale buy volume totaled $12K against $4K in sells, spread across 37 unique whale traders. Despite this substantial whale accumulation, the market price moved counter to their flow, highlighting a rare divergence between large traders and the broader market sentiment. Total 24-hour volume was $9K, with lifetime market volume at $79K and 240 unique traders participating overall.
This divergence signals a disconnect between whale conviction and price action, suggesting that while large bettors see value in the YES outcome, general market pricing has sharply reduced its likelihood. The contrasting whale flow against the price move adds complexity to interpreting the market’s current stance on the event.
| Market | Iran successfully targets shipping on July 6? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2686761 |
| 24h price change | +18.1 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 3.9% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 21.9% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 8.3% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $8K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $12K / $4K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 37 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $9K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 240 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-09. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.