Polymarket’s “Iran successfully targets shipping on July 13?” contract saw its YES price climb 35.0 percentage points in the last 24 hours, rising from 24.0% to 59.0%. This dramatic repricing reflects a major shift in market sentiment toward the likelihood of an Iranian attack on shipping on that date.
The price move was supported by whale activity, with net whale flow of $14K into YES contracts. Whale buy volume totaled $26K against $12K in sales, involving 71 unique whales. This aligns with the price action, signaling coordinated buying interest from large traders rather than a divergence between price and flow.
Overall 24-hour volume on Polymarket for this event was $20K, while lifetime market volume stands at $35K, indicating that recent activity accounts for a substantial portion of total trading. The market has attracted 164 unique traders to date, showing broad engagement alongside concentrated whale participation.
The combined surge in odds and whale-backed buying suggests growing conviction behind the expectation of an Iranian shipping attack on July 13. This convergence of price and flow highlights a notable repricing event, reflecting updated information or sentiment driving participants to reassess the event’s probability significantly upward.
| Market | Iran successfully targets shipping on July 13? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2835636 |
| 24h price change | +35.0 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 59.0% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 24.0% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | — |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $14K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $26K / $12K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 71 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $20K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 164 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-13. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.