The Polymarket contract asking if Citigroup’s Q2 provision for credit losses will exceed $2.5B saw its YES price fall sharply by 21.5 percentage points over the past 24 hours, dropping from an estimated 92.5% to 71.0%. This notable decline contrasts with whale trading activity, which diverged from the price move by adding a net $1K into YES positions during the same period.
Whales executed $4K in buy volume and $3K in sell volume across 31 unique wallets, while total 24-hour market volume on the contract reached $6K. The lifetime market volume stands at $17K with 77 unique traders involved overall. The current Polymarket YES price of 71.0% also differs markedly from the on-chain Polydata mid-price of 92.5%, reflecting a split between on-chain valuation and market trading sentiment.
This divergence between the declining YES price and whale net buying suggests a complex market dynamic where large traders are increasing exposure even as the broader market reduces the implied probability of the outcome. The flow and price movement together highlight a nuanced reassessment of risk around Citigroup’s upcoming earnings disclosure.
| Market | Will Citigroup (C) Q2 provision for credit losses be above $2.5B? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2375005 |
| 24h price change | +21.5 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 71.0% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 92.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 92.5% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $1K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $4K / $3K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 31 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $6K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 77 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-09. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.