Markets

Live desks we cover — odds, drift vs last rewrite, and a link to the full hub. Updated without rewriting the story.

Active desks

10 hubs
OPEN Hamas pledges December 31 disarmament as traders price high odds A tentative breakthrough in Middle East peace talks sees Hamas agreeing to disarm by the end of 2026.
52.0% -38.0 pp $1.09M
OPEN Cleitinho Azevedo leads tightening race for Minas Gerais governor in 2026 Campaign shifts in Minas Gerais highlight a close contest as traders weigh odds for the July 2026 election.
0.9% -26.6 pp $94K
OPEN Two SpaceX Starships docking by 2027 priced near even on Polymarket Starship docking plans unfold alongside Artemis lunar program delays and hardware updates.
65.5% +15.0 pp $20K
OPEN Israel-Hamas Second Ceasefire by Year-End Priced at 64.5% on Polymarket As ceasefire negotiations continue, market pricing signals tempered hopes for peace before 2027.
50.0% -14.5 pp $44K
OPEN Foreign intervention in Gaza by December draws cautious odds at 59% As geopolitical tensions intensify, markets price a meaningful chance of foreign intervention in Gaza by year-end.
53.0% -6.0 pp $56K
OPEN US Government removes public access to another Anthropic AI model at 20.5% Yes After earlier shutdowns, the US government considers further restrictions on Anthropic, fueling market uncertainty.
14.0% -6.0 pp $24K
OPEN NYC Median Home Value Odds Moderate as September 30 Nears Polymarket pricing reveals uncertainty on whether NYC's median home value will fall within a $636K–$663K range by September 30.
40.7% +5.5 pp $14K
OPEN NATO-Russia clash bets shift closer as August 31st nears Ongoing diplomatic strains and military activity influence public and trader views on a potential conflict by summer's end.
4.3% -4.3 pp $308K
OPEN Brazil’s September Selic rate decision sees cut odds at 81.8%, no-change at 14.5% As the Bank of Brazil’s September meeting nears, traders overwhelmingly price a 25bps rate cut, with limited bets on no change.
17.0% +2.5 pp $19K
OPEN Sofia emerges as top contender to host Eurovision 2027 Competition heats up among Bulgarian cities to secure the 2027 Eurovision hosting rights.
73.5% -2.0 pp $54K

Market moves

Polymarket Breaking · refreshes every 15 min · hub when we cover it
+92.1 pp 0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by July 31: +92.1 pp → 94.0% Polymarket +59.0 pp Will Russia enter Orikhiv by September 30: +59.0 pp → 65.5% Polymarket -54.7 pp Will Cleitinho Azevedo win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election: -54.7 pp → 12.8% Hub +45.0 pp Squid FDV above $75M one day after launch: +45.0 pp → 91.0% Polymarket -41.4 pp Will Republican Senate incumbents not win in exactly two nominating e…: -41.4 pp → 19.2% Polymarket +38.5 pp Will Mark Keough win the 2026 Montgomery County Judge election: +38.5 pp → 91.0% Polymarket +35.4 pp Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on August 10, 2026: +35.4 pp → 77.2% Polymarket +30.0 pp Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in August: +30.0 pp → 80.0% Polymarket +29.6 pp US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026: +29.6 pp → 44.5% Polymarket -28.5 pp Will a Chinese company have one of the top 3 AI models by December 31: -28.5 pp → 38.0% Polymarket -26.0 pp Will Nate Pollnow be the Wisconsin Secretary of State Republican nominee: -26.0 pp → 61.5% Polymarket -26.0 pp Will Ali Khamenei be the #1 searched passing on Google in the US this…: -26.0 pp → 11.5% Polymarket -23.0 pp Will the total domestic gross for The Odyssey be between 550m and 570…: -23.0 pp → 40.5% Polymarket +22.9 pp Will 3 Sanders endorsees win August 4 primaries: +22.9 pp → 95.5% Polymarket +19.5 pp Will Ülle Madise be the next President of Estonia: +19.5 pp → 68.0% Polymarket +17.0 pp US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31: +17.0 pp → 79.5% Polymarket +16.9 pp Will "DTF St. Louis" win 0 or 1 awards at the Emmys: +16.9 pp → 97.4% Polymarket -15.5 pp Will Revolut launch a USD stablecoin in 2026: -15.5 pp → 36.0% Polymarket +13.5 pp Will STRC hit $100 by September 30: +13.5 pp → 33.5% Polymarket -12.5 pp Will Michael Carbonara be the FL-22 Republican nominee: -12.5 pp → 58.0% Polymarket +12.5 pp Will ISM Services PMI be between 54.0 and 54.9 in July: +12.5 pp → 40.0% Polymarket +11.4 pp Will Euphoria be the #1 searched TV show on Google this year: +11.4 pp → 27.4% Polymarket +10.5 pp Will the number of Republican Senate members who retire in 2026 be ex…: +10.5 pp → 83.0% Polymarket +10.0 pp Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30: +10.0 pp → 33.5% Polymarket -10.0 pp Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap …: -10.0 pp → 10.5% Polymarket
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Market moves, pricing shifts and trading activity across Polymarket prediction markets.