Citigroup Q2 credit loss provision odds drop 25pp as whale flow diverges
YES contract for Citigroup's credit loss provision falls from 92.5% to 67.5% despite $1K net whale buys, signaling conflicting signals in Polymarket action.
Sharp 24-hour price moves on Polymarket’s Breaking feed, with whale-flow context from Polydata.
YES contract for Citigroup's credit loss provision falls from 92.5% to 67.5% despite $1K net whale buys, signaling conflicting signals in Polymarket action.
Whales and retail traders aligned as the market sharply repriced the chance of talks by July 31, 2026.
Whales aligned with the price surge, adding $2K net into YES amid $6K total volume in 24 hours.
Whales contributed a $6K net inflow to YES contracts as Polymarket’s odds surged, despite a 23.0% on-chain mid-price divergence.
Whales bought $15K into YES even as Polymarket’s price dropped from 22.2% to 1.1%, diverging sharply from on-chain data.
Polymarket's YES price plunged from 67.5% to 45.5% even as whales added $3K in net buys, revealing a rare divergence between price action and whale flow.
Polymarket’s price for a July Bitcoin dip fell from 76% to 60% in 24 hours, even as whale activity diverged from the price move.
Polymarket's 'Iran successfully targets shipping on July 8?' market sees YES contract fall sharply while whale activity flows into the same outcome, signaling conflicting signals on event likelihood.
Despite a 17.0 pp plunge in the YES price to 1.1%, whales increased their net $9K bets on the outcome, signaling conflicting signals in the Polymarket market.
Whales bought $3K into YES while Polymarket’s price fell from 68.0% to 49.5%, diverging from on-chain data.