The Polymarket YES price for the contract “Trump declassifies new UFO files by July 31?” fell sharply by 18.5 percentage points over 24 hours, dropping from 68.0% to 49.5% as of July 9, 2026. This represents a significant market repricing in less than a day.
Despite the price decline, whale activity diverged from the downward move. Twenty-three unique whales bought $4K and sold $1K, resulting in a net $3K inflow into YES contracts. This divergence between whale flow and price is notable, as it suggests larger traders took positions against the prevailing market direction.
The 24-hour total volume on Polymarket for this market was $6K, contributing to a lifetime volume of $22K with 179 unique traders participating since inception. Interestingly, Polydata’s on-chain mid-price for YES stands at 82.0%, a stark contrast to Polymarket’s 49.5% price, indicating a split between the on-chain aggregated data and the market price on Polymarket’s interface.
This combination of a steep price drop alongside whale buying activity and a wide gap between Polymarket and on-chain prices highlights unsettled sentiment and potential repositioning among larger traders. The market’s rapid repricing paired with divergent whale flow signals uncertainty and active recalibration of expectations about the likelihood of Trump declassifying new UFO files by the end of July.
| Market | Trump declassifies new UFO files by July 31? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2641102 |
| 24h price change | +18.5 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 49.5% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 68.0% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 82.0% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $3K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $4K / $1K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 23 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $6K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 179 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-09. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.