Breaking
Iran Gulf State Military Action YES Price Drops 32.5pp as Whale Flow Diverges
YES contract price fell from 92.5% to 60.0% despite $10K whale net buying, signaling conflicting signals in market sentiment.
Jul 16
Archive
Daily digests, accuracy rankings and market reads on Polymarket data. 2,341 stories.
Breaking
Messi Golden Ball odds jump 50.1pp to 90.4% as whales push $120K into YES
Lionel Messi’s chances at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Golden Ball surged sharply alongside $120K whale buying, confirming the price move on Polymarket.
Jul 16
Breaking
Moonshot AI odds jump 21.3 points to 34% as whale buying backs price move
Whales added $4K net into YES contracts on Moonshot’s Chinese AI model market, matching a sharp 24-hour price rise from 12.6% to 34%.
Jul 16
Breaking
UK Home Secretary 2026 Market YES Price Drops 24.5pp Amid Whale Flow Divergence
While the YES price for no next UK Home Secretary in 2026 plunged from 52.5% to 28.0%, whale buying flowed counter to the price move.
Jul 16
Breaking
Europe’s 2026 FIFA World Cup Win Odds Drop 22pp Despite $157K Whale Buy-in
Whale activity on Polymarket diverges from sharp 24-hour price decline in Europe’s World Cup winning chances.
Jul 16
Breaking
Odds for Shabana Mahmood as UK Chancellor in 2026 Jump 55.1pp to 86.9% on Polymarket
Whale activity aligned with a sharp 24-hour surge in odds, pushing confidence in Mahmood's chance significantly higher.
Jul 16
Breaking
Post Malone World Cup Halftime Show Odds Drop 22.9pp Despite Whale Buying
Whale activity diverged from Polymarket price action as Post Malone’s 2026 World Cup halftime show odds tumbled sharply over 24 hours.
Jul 16
Breaking
YES price jumps 32.5 pp to 91% on Over $30M Credible public sale market
Whales contributed a net $54K buying YES contracts alongside the sharp 24-hour price rise.
Jul 16
Breaking
27pp surge in Credible public sale market as whales back YES with $55K net flow
Whale buying and a 27.0 percentage point jump push the market’s YES price from 58.5% to 85.5% in 24 hours, signaling heightened confidence in $30M commitment.
Jul 16
Breaking
UK Foreign Secretary 2026 No-Next Odds Drop 28pp as Whale Flow Diverges
The market on no next UK Foreign Secretary in 2026 fell sharply from 45.5% to 17.5%, while whales bought $4K into YES, diverging from the price move.
Jul 16