Breaking
Nito Abreu’s 2026 São Tomé presidency odds plunge 17.1pp despite $4K whale buy-in
Whale buying diverged from a sharp 17.1 percentage-point drop in YES price, signaling conflicting views on Abreu’s chances.
Jul 20
Archive
Daily digests, accuracy rankings and market reads on Polymarket data. 2,341 stories.
Breaking
“Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo?” YES price jumps 36.9pp to 99.4% on Polymarket
Whales aligned with price action, injecting nearly $1M into YES contracts amid heavy volume.
Jul 20
Breaking
Carlos Vila Nova’s 2026 São Tomé and Príncipe win odds jump 18.9 pp to 95.3%
Whales supported the surge with a net $11K buy in the past 24 hours, confirming the sharp price move.
Jul 20
Breaking
Claude Opus July 22, 2026 Release Odds Drop 33pp Despite Whale Buying
Polymarket’s “Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 22, 2026?” contract fell from 52.5% to 19.5% while whale flow diverged, signaling a complex market view.
Jul 20
Breaking
Oleksandr Syrskyi exit odds jump 16.5pp to 83.5% on Polymarket as whales back the move
The contract on Syrskyi leaving Ukraine's top command by end-2026 rose sharply, with whale activity confirming the price shift.
Jul 20
Breaking
US Withdrawal from MOU Talks Odds Drop 16pp Amid Divergent Whale Activity
Polymarket’s market on US withdrawal from MOU negotiations falls from 44.0% to 28.0% even as whale flow diverges from price action.
Jul 20
Breaking
Trump in WC Champions Photo Market Jumps 38.2 Points to 99.2% on Whale Buying
Whales drove nearly $1M net into YES as the market soared from 61.0% to 99.2% in 24 hours, matching the price shift with strong demand.
Jul 20
Breaking
Andrew Tate Extradited to UK by Sep 30? YES odds drop 19pp despite $7K whale buys
Whale buying diverged from falling market prices, signaling differing views on Tate’s extradition timing.
Jul 20
Breaking
Trump’s WC Champions Photo Market Surges 38.2pp to 99.2% on Whale Buying
Whales injected nearly $1M into YES as prices jumped from 61.0% to 99.2%, signaling strong alignment between flow and market repricing.
Jul 20
Whales
$562K Net Whale Flow Into YES on Argentina World Cup Win Against 0.05% Market Price
Whale buying diverges sharply from market odds in the Argentina 2026 FIFA World Cup market ahead of closure tomorrow.
Jul 20