The YES contract on whether Nito Abreu will win the 2026 São Tomé and Príncipe presidential elections dropped 17.1 percentage points in the last 24 hours, sliding from 18.0% to 0.95% on Polymarket. This steep decline reflects a rapid shift in market sentiment against Abreu’s prospects.
Contrary to this price movement, whale activity showed a net inflow of $4K into YES positions during the same period, with $8K in whale buy volume outweighing $3K in sells. Thirty unique whales participated, indicating concentrated interest among large traders. The divergence between whale flow and price action is notable, as usually whale buying supports rising prices.
Polymarket’s total 24-hour volume in this market was $6K, while lifetime volume stands at $29K from 145 unique traders. The mismatch suggests that while the broad market is pricing in a sharp drop in Abreu’s winning chances, some whales remain committed to backing him.
The market’s steep reprice combined with whale flow divergence highlights uncertainty and mixed conviction around this political event.
| Market | Will Nito Abreu win the 2026 São Tomé and Príncipe presidential elections? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2662260 |
| 24h price change | +17.1 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 0.95% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 18.0% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 0.95% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $4K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $8K / $3K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 30 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $6K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 145 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-20. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.