Daily digests, accuracy rankings and market reads on Polymarket data. 2,341 stories.
The contract’s YES price fell from 93.0% to 74.5% over 24 hours while whales increased their YES bets, signaling a split between price direction and large trader flow.
YES price for Iran Gulf State military action drops from 85.5% to 46.5% despite $13K whale buying in 24 hours
Despite a sharp 16.5 percentage point decline in the market's YES price, whale activity flowed counter to the price move, adding $6K net into YES positions.
Sharp 24-hour drop in YES price contrasts with whale activity diverging from the market move.
Price for Toby Doeden to win South Dakota GOP primary fell from 27.5% to 10.0% while whales bought $394 net in YES contracts, diverging from the price move.
Whale buying of $12K in YES contracts contrasts with a sharp 33.0 percentage point drop in market odds for Iran military action on July 15.
Whale activity diverges from a sharp 32.1 percentage point plunge in Alibaba’s AI model market odds on Polymarket.
Whale buying diverged from a sharp 16.0 percentage point fall in the YES price on Apple’s market cap rank market.
Whales bought $5K into YES contracts even as market odds fell sharply from 71.5% to 49.5%.
Whales poured $324K into YES despite the market pricing LeBron James at just 0.25%, highlighting a rare divergence in the 2028 US Presidential Election event.
