The YES price on the market “Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?” fell sharply by 16.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours, dropping from 77.5% to 61.5%. This decline contrasts with whale activity, which saw a net inflow of $9K into YES contracts during the same period.
Whales executed $18K in buy volume and $9K in sell volume across 37 unique whale addresses, indicating a mix of trading but with a net positive tilt towards YES. The total 24-hour volume on Polymarket for this market was $18K, which matches whale buy volume, showing whales dominated recent trading. The market’s lifetime volume stands at $76K with 465 unique traders, suggesting moderate liquidity and interest.
The key story is the divergence between price movement and whale flow. While the YES price dropped significantly, whale buying pushed in the opposite direction, signaling a disconnect between retail sentiment and large trader positioning.
This mixed signal highlights a contested market view. The price drop suggests increasing skepticism among the crowd, but whale buying hints at confidence or hedging strategies among large players. Together, these factors underline ongoing uncertainty and active repositioning in this event’s odds.
| Market | Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2674078 |
| 24h price change | +16.0 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 61.5% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 77.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 61.5% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $9K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $18K / $9K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 37 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $18K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 465 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-16. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.