Daily digests, accuracy rankings and market reads on Polymarket data. 2,341 stories.
Polymarket’s data shows whale activity aligned with a sharp increase in odds for a Trump accusation by July 16, signaling growing market conviction.
Polymarket’s YES contract on Iran military action against a Gulf State fell sharply despite whale bets favoring the outcome.
Whale activity diverged from market price as Polymarket’s odds for Starship launch by July 17 collapsed from 82.0% to 6.5%.
YES contract for Ethereum hitting $2,000 in July dropped from 67.5% to 44.0%, while whales added $6K net into YES, signaling a split between price and big-money bets.
Whale activity diverged from a sharp 76.0 percentage point drop in the YES price on SpaceX’s Starship launch market.
Polymarket’s contract on Israeli parliament dissolution saw a sharp 64.5 percentage point drop in YES odds, while whale flow moved against the price trend.
Polymarket’s “Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 16?” market dropped from 72.0% to 0.05% YES price, while whale activity diverged from the price move.
@JAHODA places a large $299K wager against consensus on a rare 50+ bps Fed hike after July 2026 meeting.
Whale flow diverged sharply from price as YES contract on Iran Gulf military action dropped from 73.0% to 31.0%.
Whale activity diverged sharply from price drop as market slashed chances of dissolution by July 16
