Breaking
Trump-China election interference market surges 34.5 pp to 97% on Polymarket
Whale activity matched the sharp 34.5 percentage point rise in the chance Trump accuses China by July 16.
Jul 17
Archive
Daily digests, accuracy rankings and market reads on Polymarket data. 2,341 stories.
Breaking
Polymarket Yes Price on Ethereum $2,000 July Target Drops 21pp Amid Whale Flow Divergence
The market's implied probability for Ethereum hitting $2,000 in July fell sharply despite whales increasing their YES exposure by $6K.
Jul 17
Breaking
Trump-China election interference accusation contract jumps 31pp to 93.5%
Whale activity aligned with the sharp 24-hour price surge on Polymarket’s July 16 event.
Jul 17
Breaking
Claude Opus July 31, 2026 Release Market YES Price Drops 15pp Amid Divergent Whale Flow
YES contract price for next Claude Opus model release fell from 86.5% to 71.5% despite whale activity moving against the price trend.
Jul 17
Breaking
Trump accusing China of election interference odds surge 21.5pp to 83.5%
Whale activity matched a sharp 21.5 percentage point jump in YES price over 24 hours on Polymarket.
Jul 17
Breaking
Ethereum $2,000 July contract YES price drops 24pp despite $6K whale buying
Whales bought $6K into the YES side as Polymarket’s odds on Ethereum hitting $2,000 in July fell sharply from 63.5% to 39.5%.
Jul 17
Breaking
Max Martin wedding attendance odds plunge 40.1 pp despite $11K whale bets
Whale buying diverged from a sharp halving in Yes price on Polymarket's Max Martin wedding market.
Jul 17
Breaking
Iran Military Action Odds Drop 41.5 Points Despite Whale Bets
Polymarket’s “Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 16?” contract saw a sharp 41.5 percentage point decline in YES price, while whale flow moved against the price direction.
Jul 17
Breaking
SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 YES price plunges 80.8pp despite $24K whale buying
Polymarket’s SpaceX launch market dropped from 81.5% to 0.65% even as whales bought $24K into YES contracts, signaling a divergence between price and whale flow.
Jul 17
Breaking
‘Will Trump meet Netanyahu by July 20, 2026?’ YES price plunges 80.9 pp to 1.6%
Polymarket's odds on a Trump-Netanyahu meeting collapsed despite whale bets diverging from the sharp price drop.
Jul 17