Breaking
“Iran successfully targets shipping on July 13?” YES price plunges 41.6 pp despite $4K whale buying
Whale activity diverged from the sharp market sell-off, signaling a split in conviction over the event’s likelihood.
Jul 15
Archive
Daily digests, accuracy rankings and market reads on Polymarket data. 2,341 stories.
Breaking
Iran Gulf military action odds drop 43pp as whale flow diverges from price
Polymarket’s “Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 13?” contract fell from 91.5% to 48.5% despite whales not backing the decline.
Jul 15
Breaking
Ethereum $1,900 July Contract Surges 40.5pp to 92% on Polymarket
Whales backed the sharp rise with $18K net buys, confirming the rapid repricing of the July ETH price target.
Jul 15
Breaking
China Q2 2026 GDP Growth YES Price Crashes 55.9pp Despite $11K Whale Bets
Whale buying diverged sharply from a 56pp plunge in the YES price on Polymarket, signaling conflicting signals on China’s economic outlook.
Jul 15
Breaking
Fed Rates Steady After July 2026 Meeting Jumps 28.5pp to 92.5% on Whale Buying
Whales pushed $2.30M into YES as Polymarket odds for no Fed rate change surged sharply in 24 hours.
Jul 15
Breaking
Iran military action market surges 39.5pp to 94.5% amid aligned whale buying
Polymarket’s odds for Iran attacking a Gulf State on July 15 jumped sharply as whale flows supported the move, despite a large on-chain price discrepancy.
Jul 15
Whales
$4.68M Net Whale Bets on France to Win 2026 World Cup Despite 0.05% Market Odds
A surge of $4.68M net whale flow into the YES side contrasts sharply with the market-implied price, highlighting a rare divergence in the World Cup prediction market.
Jul 15
Breaking
Israeli Parliament Dissolution Odds Surge 36.6 Points to 80.2% on Polymarket
Whale activity aligned with a sharp 24-hour price jump, pushing the market sharply higher on dissolution by July 16.
Jul 15
Breaking
Ed Miliband Chancellor YES Price Plummets 49pp While Whales Buy $25K
Whale buying diverges sharply from a 49pp drop in Ed Miliband’s Chancellor odds, revealing a split in market sentiment.
Jul 15
Breaking
“Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 13?” YES price falls 33.5 pp amid whale flow divergence
Polymarket’s odds for Iranian military action dropped from 91.5% to 58.0% in 24 hours despite whale activity not supporting the sell-off.
Jul 15