The market on whether Ed Miliband will be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer in 2026 saw its YES price collapse by 49.0 percentage points over 24 hours, dropping from an estimated 68.5% to 19.5% on July 15. This sharp decline contrasts starkly with whale activity, which moved counter to the price action.
Whales collectively bought $44K and sold $19K of YES contracts in the same period, resulting in a net flow of $25K into YES. This divergence between whale flow and price is confirmed by the flow_diverges_from_price flag, indicating that large traders increased their exposure even as the market odds fell.
Polymarket’s 24-hour volume for this market reached $40K, contributing to a lifetime volume of $62K with 255 unique traders involved. Notably, the Polydata on-chain mid-price stands at 60.5%, significantly higher than the 19.5% YES price reported by Polymarket Breaking at this snapshot, highlighting a discrepancy between on-chain data and market pricing.
This tension points to uncertainty about Ed Miliband’s chances as Chancellor despite the market’s steep repricing.
| Market | Will Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2632926 |
| 24h price change | +49.0 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 19.5% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 68.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 60.5% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $25K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $44K / $19K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 112 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $40K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 255 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-15. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.