The market on whether Alibaba will have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026 surged 19.6 percentage points in the past 24 hours, rising from 49.3% to 68.9%.
This sharp repricing coincided with strong whale activity aligned with the price move: whales bought $7K worth of YES contracts while selling $3K, resulting in a net $4K inflow into YES over the same period. A total of 63 unique whales participated in these trades, contributing notably to the $12K total volume traded on Polymarket in the last day.
Since the market’s inception, lifetime volume has reached $89K with 1,099 unique traders engaging, indicating steady interest in this long-dated AI forecast.
The synchronization of whale flow and price suggests conviction among large traders that Alibaba’s prospects for leading Chinese AI have improved substantially. This combined surge in price and whale buying activity signals a meaningful shift in market sentiment toward Alibaba’s competitive position by mid-2026.
| Market | Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2431240 |
| 24h price change | +19.6 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 68.9% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 49.3% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 68.9% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $4K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $7K / $3K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 63 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $12K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 1,099 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-19. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.