The probability of the US announcing a blockade on Iran by December 31 surged 29.0 percentage points within 24 hours, lifting the YES price from 41.0% to 70.0% on Polymarket. This sizable shift reflects a rapid market reassessment of the likelihood of this geopolitical event.
Whale trading activity confirmed the price action, with $28K in buy volume against $10K in sell volume, resulting in a net inflow of $18K into YES contracts from 83 unique whale traders. This alignment between whale flow and price movement suggests that larger traders are reinforcing the market’s growing conviction in this outcome.
Despite this sharp increase, the Polymarket Breaking YES price at 70.0% contrasts markedly with the Polydata on-chain mid-price of 25.5%, indicating a notable divergence between the platform’s live odds and the broader on-chain data snapshot. Total 24-hour volume in this market reached $24K, contributing to a lifetime market volume of $362K with 561 unique traders recorded.
The combined effect of a pronounced price jump and strong whale support signals a significant shift in market sentiment toward a US blockade announcement on Iran by year-end. This repositioning underlines how quickly expectations can evolve in prediction markets amid geopolitical developments.
| Market | Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by December 31? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2643406 |
| 24h price change | +29.0 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 70.0% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 41.0% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 25.5% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $18K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $28K / $10K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 83 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $24K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 561 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-12. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.