The probability that Iran will successfully target shipping on July 12 surged sharply on Polymarket, with the YES contract price rising from 4.4% to 88.9%, an 84.5 percentage point increase within 24 hours.
This dramatic shift in market sentiment was accompanied by whale activity that moved in tandem with the price. Over the past day, 46 unique whales executed $8K in buy volume and $4K in sell volume, resulting in a net flow of $4K into YES positions. The alignment between whale flow and the price move underscores a strong consensus among large traders backing this outcome.
Polymarket’s total 24-hour volume on this market matched the whale buy volume at $8K, indicating that whale trades accounted for a significant portion of market activity. Since inception, the market has seen $13K in lifetime volume and engaged 104 unique traders, highlighting steady interest around this event.
The combined surge in price and coordinated whale buying suggests a rapid reassessment of the likelihood that Iran will carry out a successful targeting operation on shipping by July 12. This repricing reflects a decisive shift in market expectations, backed by sizable bets from influential participants.
| Market | Iran successfully targets shipping on July 12? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2835635 |
| 24h price change | +84.5 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 88.9% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 4.4% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 93.0% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $4K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $8K / $4K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 46 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $8K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 104 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-12. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.