The market on Polymarket asking if the next OpenAI model will debut at a score of at least 1470 saw its YES contract price collapse by 81.8 percentage points in 24 hours, falling from approximately 83.3% to 1.5%, according to the PM Breaking feed on July 11, 2026.
Despite this dramatic price decline, whale activity tells a different story. Large traders collectively bought $11K worth of YES contracts while selling $3K, resulting in a net whale inflow of $8K into YES positions over the same period. This divergence between whale flow and price movement is flagged explicitly, highlighting that the sharp drop in market odds was not confirmed by big-money buying.
Overall market volume on the question totaled $11K in the last 24 hours, with lifetime volume reaching $60K and participation from 275 unique traders. The Polydata on-chain mid-price for YES stands at 81.2%, which contrasts starkly with the current Polymarket trading price of 1.5%, suggesting a significant temporary disconnect between on-chain valuations and exchange prices.
This split between whale behavior and price action points to unsettled market sentiment or potential liquidity effects rather than a uniform consensus shift. The contrasting signals from price and whale flow mean traders remain uncertain about the model’s debut score, reflecting complexity in how information is being priced in this prediction market.
| Market | Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1470? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2169894 |
| 24h price change | +81.8 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 1.5% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 83.3% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 81.2% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $8K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $11K / $3K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 35 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $11K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 275 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-11. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.