The market on whether Trump will declassify new UFO files by July 15 saw a sharp 30.5 percentage point increase in its YES contract price over the past 24 hours, rising from 47.0% to 77.5% as of July 10, 2026. This move reflects growing confidence in this outcome within a short timeframe.
The price surge was accompanied by aligned whale activity, indicating that large traders increased their net exposure to YES contracts alongside the price rally. This synchronicity between price and whale flow strengthens the signal that market participants with significant capital are backing the higher probability for declassification.
Polymarket reported $59K in volume for this market over the same period, showing notable trading interest. The combination of a substantial price jump and whale flow moving in tandem suggests a meaningful shift in market sentiment rather than a purely speculative spike.
Overall, the coordinated rise in price and whale bets points to a consensus among informed traders that the likelihood of new UFO files being declassified by mid-July has increased sharply in the last day.
| Market | Trump declassifies new UFO files by July 15? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2730727 |
| 24h price change | +30.5 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 77.5% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 47.0% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | — |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $0 |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | — / — |
| Unique whales (24h) | — |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $59K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | — |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-10. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.