Chongqing registers the widest temperature forecast spread among 52 active city markets, with sources disagreeing on today’s high between 34.7°C and 39°C, a 4.3°C gap that stands out amid $30K in 24-hour trading volume. This divergence follows yesterday’s actual high of 38.1°C, underscoring market participants’ uncertainty about near-term conditions in the city.
Shanghai remains the most liquid weather market with $291K traded in the past 24 hours, reflecting strong engagement around a narrower forecast range of 36°C to 38°C. Beijing and Taipei also show significant activity, with $93K and $92K traded respectively, alongside forecast spreads of 2.5°C and 4.1°C. Singapore’s market recorded $50K in volume and a forecast range from 29.9°C to 33°C.
These data points highlight how forecast source disagreement translates into varying market interest and volume, creating distinct pockets of uncertainty across regional weather markets. The broader vertical volume reached $590K over the last day, part of an all-time depth of $9.00B, signaling robust engagement in weather prediction markets.
Tracking forecast spreads alongside actual outcomes provides a critical edge for market participants seeking to evaluate the reliability and divergence of weather models city by city. Chongqing’s pronounced forecast gap and moderate volume illustrate how markets price in uncertainty, offering a live barometer of forecast confidence across Asia’s key cities.
Today’s most active weather markets
| City | Volume (24h) | Forecast high | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shanghai | $291K | 36°C–38°C | 2°C |
| Beijing | $93K | 33.5°C–36°C | 2.5°C |
| Taipei | $92K | 31.9°C–36°C | 4.1°C |
| Singapore | $50K | 29.9°C–33°C | 3.1°C |
| Chongqing | $30K | 34.7°C–39°C | 4.3°C |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /weather/cities · snapshot 2026-07-31. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.