Seoul’s weather markets show the widest disagreement among forecast sources today, with predicted highs ranging from 23.6°C to 26°C, a 2.4°C spread. This divergence accompanies $212K in 24-hour trading volume, making Seoul the most actively traded city in Polydata’s weather vertical.
Yesterday, Seoul’s actual high temperature reached 26°C, the upper bound of today’s forecast range. This level of uncertainty contrasts with other major cities like Paris and London, where forecast spreads are narrower and volumes lower. Paris’s temperature forecasts range from 23.2°C to 24.9°C, a 1.7°C spread with $27K traded over 24 hours, while London shows a 0.7°C spread between 24.9°C and 25.6°C, with $26K in daily volume.
Across 52 active city markets, the weather vertical saw total 24-hour volume of $310K, with an all-time depth of $8.99B. Seoul’s $212K daily volume represents the majority of this activity, underscoring its prominence in weather market liquidity.
The significant forecast spread in Seoul signals uncertainty among models, offering market participants a wide range of temperature outcomes to price in. This divergence drives higher trading activity as participants seek to capitalize on differing predictions. The concentration of volume in Seoul highlights the city as a focal point for weather market interest and model discrepancies today.
Today’s most active weather markets
| City | Volume (24h) | Forecast high | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seoul | $212K | 23.6°C–26°C | 2.4°C |
| Paris | $27K | 23.2°C–24.9°C | 1.7°C |
| London | $26K | 24.9°C–25.6°C | 0.7°C |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /weather/cities · snapshot 2026-07-20. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.