Wallet 0x3b58…eabd achieved the sharpest forecasting record on Polymarket, maintaining 100% accuracy across 225 resolved markets. This performance stands out among 691,381 qualifying wallets that resolved at least 20 positions, marking the highest level of precision combined with significant volume.
The leader’s Brier score, a metric measuring the alignment of forecast probabilities with actual outcomes, is an exceptionally low 0.0001, indicating near-perfect probability calibration. The wallet also recorded $249K in trading volume, underscoring a substantial commitment behind its flawless predictions.
Runners-up similarly posted 100% accuracy but with fewer resolved positions and lower volume: wallet 0xf891…319c at 183 resolved positions and $206K volume, 0x921e…9a5f with 134 resolved and $185K, and 0xe615…16e3 with 148 resolved and $181K. While many small-stake accounts achieve perfect scores, the leaderboard prioritizes wallets with meaningful activity to highlight consistent, high-stakes forecasting skill.
This data-driven ranking emphasizes accuracy as measured by Brier score rather than profit, offering a distinct perspective on forecasting prowess in decentralized prediction markets. 0x3b58…eabd’s record signals a rare combination of precision and volume, reflecting a sophisticated approach to market probabilities.
| Wallet | 0x3b58…eabd |
|---|---|
| Accuracy | 100% |
| Brier score | 0.0001 |
| Resolved positions | 225 |
| Volume | $249K |
Also near-perfect
| Wallet | Accuracy | Positions | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xf891…319c | 100% | 183 | $206K |
| 0x921e…9a5f | 100% | 134 | $185K |
| 0xe615…16e3 | 100% | 148 | $181K |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /oracle/leaderboard · snapshot 2026-07-31. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.