Polymarket’s “Trump declassifies new UFO files by July 15?” contract saw its YES price jump 37.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours, climbing from 43.5% to 80.5% as of July 10, 2026. This sharp repricing reflects a significant shift in market sentiment on the likelihood of new UFO files being declassified within the next five days.
Notably, whale activity aligned with this price move, with large investors adding net exposure to YES positions, confirming the upward momentum. The $58K traded in the last day further underscores growing engagement and conviction around this event.
The synchronization between whale flow and the price surge suggests that the market’s reassessment is supported by substantial capital backing, rather than a purely retail-driven spike. This alignment often indicates that informed participants are driving the change in odds.
Overall, the combined increase in price and whale buying signals a strong consensus developing around the expectation that new UFO files will be declassified by the stated deadline. Market participants appear increasingly confident in this outcome, as reflected in both the price action and the on-chain whale behavior.
| Market | Trump declassifies new UFO files by July 15? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2730727 |
| 24h price change | +37.0 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 80.5% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 43.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | — |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $0 |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | — / — |
| Unique whales (24h) | — |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $58K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | — |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-10. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.