The market question “Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 24, 2026?” saw a sharp repricing on July 20, with the YES contract price falling 21.0 percentage points from 75.0% roughly 24 hours earlier down to 54.0%. This sizable decline in implied probability contrasts with whale behavior, which diverged from the price move.
Whales collectively bought $8K worth of YES contracts while selling $3K, resulting in a net inflow of $5K into YES positions over the same 24-hour period. This flow divergence is notable given that 42 unique whales participated in the market, contributing to a total Polymarket 24-hour volume of $14K.
The lifetime market volume stands at $42K with 188 unique traders having engaged with the contract.
This divergence between whale flow and price movement signals that while general market participants are pricing in a lower chance of the Claude Opus model releasing by the deadline, whales are increasing exposure to the YES outcome.
| Market | Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 24, 2026? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2925816 |
| 24h price change | +21.0 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 54.0% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 75.0% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 54.0% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $5K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $8K / $3K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 42 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $14K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 188 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-20. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.