The market on whether the Houthis will successfully target shipping by July 31, 2026, saw its YES contract price fall sharply by 17.5 percentage points within 24 hours, dropping from an estimated 45.5% to 28.0% as of July 18.
This significant downward repricing contrasts with whale trading activity during the same period. Whales collectively net bought $9K worth of YES contracts, with $15K in buy volume against $6K in sells, spread across 39 unique whale traders. The divergence between whale flow and price movement is notable: while the tape pushed the YES price lower, whales increased their exposure to the outcome.
Overall 24-hour volume on Polymarket for this question reached $27K, contributing to a lifetime market volume of $103K with 74 unique traders participating. The fact that whale flow diverged from the price suggests conflicting signals between retail or general trader sentiment and larger, possibly more informed participants.
The split between price action and whale flow highlights ongoing uncertainty and differing interpretations of risk in this geopolitical event.
| Market | Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 31, 2026? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2850432 |
| 24h price change | +17.5 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 28.0% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 45.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 28.0% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $9K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $15K / $6K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 39 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $27K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 74 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-18. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.