The probability that the Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31 increased sharply by 28.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours, climbing from 33.5% to 61.5% on Polymarket. This substantial repricing reflects a significant shift in market sentiment within a single day.
Supporting this move, whale activity on the platform aligned with the price trend, indicating that large traders contributed net inflows into YES contracts rather than opposing the rally. The combined price increase and whale flow suggest growing confidence among major market participants that the ceasefire will hold through the end of the month.
Trading volume over the 24-hour window reached $12K, underscoring active engagement around this event amid heightened geopolitical uncertainty. The alignment of whale flow with the price jump signals a consensus behind the rising odds rather than a contested market.
This dynamic points to a notable recalibration of expectations on Polymarket, with the market now pricing a considerably higher likelihood that the ceasefire will persist through July 31.
| Market | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2952486 |
| 24h price change | +28.0 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 61.5% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 33.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | — |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $0 |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | — / — |
| Unique whales (24h) | — |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $12K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | — |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-18. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.