Polymarket’s prediction market on “Israel military action against Yemen by July 31?” saw a significant repricing over the past 24 hours, with the YES contract climbing 15.0 percentage points from 9.0% to 24.0%. This sharp rise signals a notable shift in market sentiment toward the likelihood of military action within the specified timeframe.
Whale activity aligned closely with this price movement, as 14 unique whales collectively bought $6K worth of YES contracts while selling $1K, resulting in a net $5K inflow into YES positions. This flow confirms that larger traders backed the price increase rather than opposing it, lending credibility to the upward momentum.
The total 24-hour volume on this market was $6K, matching the whale buy volume, suggesting that whales dominated recent trading. Since inception, the market has seen $18K in volume from 39 unique traders, indicating moderate overall engagement.
The combined price jump and whale flow suggest a reassessment of the probability for Israeli military action against Yemen, with larger participants visibly increasing their exposure to YES.
| Market | Israel military action against Yemen by July 31? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2915513 |
| 24h price change | +15.0 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 24.0% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 9.0% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 23.5% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $5K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $6K / $1K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 14 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $6K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 39 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-18. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.