The YES price on the market “Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?” fell sharply by 16.5 percentage points over the last 24 hours, dropping from 71.5% to 55.0% as of July 18. This significant repricing indicates a marked decline in market confidence on this outcome within a single day.
However, whale trading activity diverged from the price movement. Whales net bought $31K into YES contracts during the same period, with $60K in buy volume against $29K in sell volume across 153 unique whale traders. This divergence between price and large trader flow suggests that while the broader market pushed odds lower, whales maintained or increased their exposure to the YES side.
Total Polymarket volume for the market reached $69K in 24 hours, contributing to a lifetime market volume of $1.41M and involving 3,148 unique traders overall. The gap between the downward price move and whale net buying highlights differing interpretations of the likelihood that NVIDIA will be the largest company by market cap on July 31.
This split between tape and whale flow signals a complex market dynamic: retail or general traders are lowering odds sharply, while whales hold a contrasting view by accumulating YES positions. Together, these factors underscore heightened uncertainty and active repositioning ahead of the July 31 date.
| Market | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2673621 |
| 24h price change | +16.5 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 55.0% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 71.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 55.0% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $31K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $60K / $29K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 153 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $69K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 3,148 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-18. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.