The market on whether Anthropic will extend Claude Fable 5 paid-plan access again by July 19 saw its YES price soar 21.6 percentage points in the last 24 hours, rising from 77.0% to 98.7% according to Polymarket Breaking data as of July 18.
This surge reflects a strong consensus shift toward the extension occurring, supported by $66K in trading volume over the same period. Notably, whale trading activity moved in tandem with the price increase, indicating large investors were adding to YES positions rather than opposing the trend.
The alignment of whale flow with the price move suggests conviction behind the repricing rather than a short-term speculative spike. This coordinated rise in both price and whale interest signals growing market confidence that Anthropic will indeed extend the Claude Fable 5 paid plan by the specified deadline.
Such a dramatic increase in the implied probability within a single day underscores the market’s rapid reassessment of the likelihood of this event, likely influenced by new information or sentiment shifts. The combined price and whale flow data point to a strong market consensus forming around this outcome.
| Market | Will Anthropic extend Claude Fable 5 paid-plan access again by July 19? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2898504 |
| 24h price change | +21.6 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 98.7% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 77.0% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | — |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $0 |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | — / — |
| Unique whales (24h) | — |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $66K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | — |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-18. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.