The Polymarket contract on whether SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 will launch by July 17 saw a dramatic drop in its YES price, falling 85.0 percentage points over 24 hours from 85.5% to just 0.50%. This striking reversal contrasts sharply with whale behavior, which showed net inflows of $30K into YES positions during the same period.
Despite the overwhelming market sell-off reflected in a 24-hour volume of $49K and a lifetime volume of $53K, whales bought $48K and sold only $18K, indicating a divergence between large trader flows and price movement. The market had 82 unique whales active in the last day, contributing to this notable flow imbalance. Overall, 171 unique traders have participated in this market.
This divergence suggests that while the broader market sentiment has shifted heavily against the launch happening by the deadline, whales remain positioned on the YES side. Such conflicting signals between price action and whale flow highlight uncertainty or differing interpretations among major participants about the likelihood of the launch event.
| Market | Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 17? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2911983 |
| 24h price change | +85.0 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 0.50% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 85.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 0.25% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $30K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $48K / $18K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 82 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $49K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 171 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-17. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.